http://organizationsandmarkets.com/2008/01/09/prediction-markets/ Economics of organizations, strategy, entrepreneurship, innovation, and more Thu, 24 Jul 2008 03:32:06 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU http://organizationsandmarkets.com/2008/01/09/prediction-markets/#comment-68358 Todd W. Fri, 11 Jan 2008 21:41:24 +0000 http://organizationsandmarkets.com/2008/01/09/prediction-markets/#comment-68358 Were there prediction markets that were specifically focused on the NH primaries? For instance, Iowa Electronic Mkts is specifically a nomination market, predicting the final outcome of the nomination process, not specific primary results. Were there prediction markets that were specifically focused on the NH primaries? For instance, Iowa Electronic Mkts is specifically a nomination market, predicting the final outcome of the nomination process, not specific primary results.

]]> http://organizationsandmarkets.com/2008/01/09/prediction-markets/#comment-68119 Dirk Friedrich Thu, 10 Jan 2008 12:04:55 +0000 http://organizationsandmarkets.com/2008/01/09/prediction-markets/#comment-68119 In my opinion there is a lack of diversity of opionion. People who partake in prediction markets are the ones who think of themselves as informed and exercising rational judgment when voting for one candidate or the other. However, politicians who want to be successful in democracy need to appeal to emotion and instinct to recruit potential followers. In fact, those people come to cast their vote, but never intellectually scrutinize the positions of their political idols. Further, future markets don't appeal to everyone. Of course, there is some overlap between both groups. But the difference could account for the "failure" of prediction markets. In truth they don't fail. In my opinion there is a lack of diversity of opionion. People who partake in prediction markets are the ones who think of themselves as informed and exercising rational judgment when voting for one candidate or the other. However, politicians who want to be successful in democracy need to appeal to emotion and instinct to recruit potential followers. In fact, those people come to cast their vote, but never intellectually scrutinize the positions of their political idols. Further, future markets don’t appeal to everyone. Of course, there is some overlap between both groups. But the difference could account for the “failure” of prediction markets. In truth they don’t fail.

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