Organizations and Markets

Needed: A Little Cost-Benefit Analysis

| Peter Klein |

Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver, and Aaron Edlin estimate the the probability of any given vote being decisive in Tuesday’s US election is about one in 60 million. Residents of a few states, like New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, are especially important: their chance is one in 10 million. Oh, did I mention that your vote doesn’t matter?

Cliff sent me a couple of amusing items on People Who Don’t Get It. Here’s one on a young Chicago woman who can’t decide between McCain and Obama, and is “probably going to cram the night before the election and really study them both.” Gee, I wonder which candidate is going to win Illinois? And here’s a wonderful cartoon from the 1932 Chicago Tribune, “How to Vote Intelligently in the Primary.” Ah, where are the Colonel McCormicks of today?

2 November 2008 at 10:16 pm Peter G. Klein 11 comments