Archive for August, 2009
How to Publish a Scientific Comment in 123 Easy Steps
| Peter Klein |
This is floating around the web and good for a chuckle. The situation in social science is in some ways better and in other ways worse than that described here (the author claims it’s based on a true story). Our journals are not quite as space constrained, on average, but our publication lags are typically much longer.
Be sure to read all the way through to the Addenda, in which the author makes interesting and important suggestions for revising the system. (HT: Randy.)
The Amish Internet
| Peter Klein |
It’s the Budget, a 119-year-old Amish weekly newspaper published in Sugarcreek, Ohio. “The Budget is the dominant means of communication among the Amish, a Christian denomination with about 227,000 members nationwide who shun cars for horse-drawn buggies and avoid hooking up to the electrical grid,” says an AP story. The national edition, which has a strong following in the US and Canada, simply aggregates dispatches produced by local writers. “People call the Budget the Amish Internet,” says its publisher. “It’s non-electric, it’s on paper, but it’s the same thing.”
The example highlights the benefits and costs of different types of networks. Open-access, open-source networks governed by just a few simple protocols like TCP/IP and HTML are not necessarily the best solution for every problem. Sneakernet is more secure, for example. In the Amish case, according to the AP story, the Budget’s customers limited access, threatening a rebellion when the newspaper recently announced plans to produce an online edition. “The writers, known as scribes, feared their plainspoken dispatches would become fodder for entertainment in the ‘English,’ or non-Amish, world.”
History of Economic Thought Boot Camp
| Peter Klein |
A message from Bruce Caldwell:
I am pleased to announce that the Center for the History of Political Economy at Duke University has been awarded a grant by the National Endowment for the Humanities to support a Summer Institute to be held at Duke June 6 – 25, 2010. The institute will bring 25 faculty members from colleges and universities in the US with no previous experience teaching history of economic thought to Duke for a three week “Boot Camp,” with the goal that the participants will go back to their home institutions both prepared and eager to teach an undergraduate course in the field. A number of HES members (past or present Society presidents all, in fact) will serve as lecturers and discussion leaders, including Brad Bateman, Bruce Caldwell, Craufurd Goodwin, Kevin Hoover, Steve Medema, Sandy Peart, and Roy Weintraub. We are hopeful that this institute, if successful, will be continued in future years, and that if alternative sources of funding become available, could be opened up to include graduate students and non-US citizens. (The current constraints on eligibility are due to NEH rules.)
You can contact Bruce for more information.
Interviews with Nobel Laureates
| Peter Klein |
I just discovered that the official Nobel site has a multimedia section, with interviews, videos of the ceremonies and acceptance speeches, and so on. Most of the recent economics Laureates are included. Interesting stuff.
Bonus Nobel material: Josh Wright makes a good case for an economics prize honoring the UCLA tradition in the theory of the firm, property rights, and transaction costs. Josh himself is an excellent representative of that tradition. And here’s an old post on the prospects for a Nobel prize in organizational economics.
Williamson is still my favorite dark horse candidate, for obvious personal reasons, but I’d be delighted to see Klein, Alchian, Demsetz, or even Barzel and Cheung recognized for their contributions.
Even Stanley Fish . . .
| Peter Klein |
. . . recognizes that politicizing the basic English composition classes — one of the crowning achievements of literary and cultural postmodernism, the movement once championed by Fish himself — wasn’t such a good idea (via George Leef):
A few years ago, when I was grading papers for a graduate literature course, I became alarmed at the inability of my students to write a clean English sentence. They could manage for about six words and then, almost invariably, the syntax (and everything else) fell apart. I became even more alarmed when I remembered that these same students were instructors in the college’s composition program. What, I wondered, could possibly be going on in their courses?
I decided to find out, and asked to see the lesson plans of the 104 sections. I read them and found that only four emphasized training in the craft of writing. Although the other 100 sections fulfilled the composition requirement, instruction in composition was not their focus. Instead, the students spent much of their time discussing novels, movies, TV shows and essays on a variety of hot-button issues — racism, sexism, immigration, globalization. These artifacts and topics are surely worthy of serious study, but they should have received it in courses that bore their name, if only as a matter of truth-in-advertising.
As I learned more about the world of composition studies, I came to the conclusion that unless writing courses focus exclusively on writing they are a sham, and I advised administrators to insist that all courses listed as courses in composition teach grammar and rhetoric and nothing else. This advice was contemptuously dismissed by the composition establishment, and I was accused of being a reactionary who knew nothing about current trends in research.
Quelle ironie!
The Pretense of Bernanke’s Knowledge
| Peter Klein |
Chairman Bernanke, in his own words:
July 2005: “[U]nquestionably, housing prices are up quite a bit; I think it’s important to note that fundamentals are also very strong. We’ve got a growing economy, jobs, incomes. We’ve got very low mortgage rates. We’ve got demographics supporting housing growth. We’ve got restricted supply in some places. So it’s certainly understandable that prices would go up some. I don’t know whether prices are exactly where they should be, but I think it’s fair to say that much of what’s happened is supported by the strength of the economy.”
July 2005: “[Recession is] a pretty unlikely possibility. We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So what I think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize: might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.”
February 2007: “Our assessment is that there’s not much indication at this point that subprime mortgage issues have spread into the broader mortgage market, which still seems to be healthy. And the lending side of that still seems to be healthy.”
July 2007: “The pace of home sales seems likely to remain sluggish for a time, partly as a result of some tightening in lending standards, and the recent increase in mortgage interest rates. Sales should ultimately be supported by growth in income and employment, as well as by mortgage rates that, despite the recent increase, remain fairly low relative to historical norms. . . . Overall, the U.S. economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over the second half of 2007, with growth then strengthening a bit in 2008 to a rate close to the economy’s underlying trend.”
July 2009: “Overall, the Federal Reserve has many effective tools to tighten monetary policy when the economic outlook requires us to do so. As my colleagues and I have stated, however, economic conditions are not likely to warrant tighter monetary policy for an extended period. We will calibrate the timing and pace of any future tightening, together with the mix of tools to best foster our dual objectives of maximum employment and price stability.”
The Economist Going Austro-Demsetzian?
| Nicolai Foss |
Most observers of industrial organization will readily agree that so-called “predatory pricing” is a rare phenomenon. Nevertheless, it remains one of the most hotly debated topics in industrial organization theory and in practical competition policy, probably because it is a particularly conspicuous example of the “abuse of a dominant position” (to use EU competition policy lingo).
In its most recent issue, The Economist has a nice discussion of predatory pricing, prompted by the recent EU Intel case. The article opens by citing Coase, but in actuality its owes much more to Harold Demsetz (cf. this classic paper) as well as Austrian writers on industrial organization such as Dominick Armentano (cf. this paper). The article is excellent as a basis for discussion in classes on industrial organization.
A Hopeful Sign
| Peter Klein |
At least one major US bank is advertising the fact that it refused TARP funds. Bernanke and Co. must be unhappy, as they insisted that all large banks take the money to avoid tainting those that actually needed it. Wouldn’t it be great if the largest bailout recipients became tarred as Welfare Bums (just as people call G.M. “Government Motors”)? (HT to Lisa Fairfax.)
The irony in all this is that government intervention in financial markets is usually justified by claims about asymmetric information: consumers can’t distinguish reliable from unreliable banks, insurers can’t tell healthy from unhealthy people, and so on, leading to a rash of adverse-selection problems that market mechanisms cannot solve. Actually the reverse is true: low-quality but politically connected financial institutions rely on government intervention to enforce a pooling equilibrium, preventing the market signaling and screening that would otherwise take place.
Discipline-Based Policy Advice
| Peter Klein |
As noted before, the economist long ago replaced the fortune teller as the most popular kind of policy adviser. The US, for example, has a Council of Economic Advisers but no Council of Anthropological Advisers or Council of Critical Literary Theorist Advisers (thank goodness). Now the sociologists want a piece of the action. And, as Rajshree Agarwal, Jay Barney, Nicolai, and I have argued, management scholars (a partially overlapping set with economists, it should be noted) may also have something to offer in understanding the current economic mess.
Here’s Richard Posner making a pitch for legal scholars: “with a few notable exceptions, such as Lucian Bebchuk, Edward Morrison, and Steven Schwarcz, academic lawyers (and Bebchuk and Morrison have Ph.Ds in economics, as well as law degrees) have not made a contribution to the understanding and resolution of the current economic crisis, even though it bristles with legal questions.” But he isn’t sure that academic legal training is currently very useful. Kenneth Anderson is more optimistic:
I think that legal academics will have much to contribute in the reform of finance in the remaking of institutions and markets with fewer panglossian assumptions about how they will find optimal solutions on their own, and with fewer panglossian assumptions that they will do so as a matter of natural necessity. But I also think, even more strongly, and will raise it in some subsequent posts, that lawyers will bring to the table an understanding of the unquantified risks and uncertainties that are written into financial contracts — derivatives, securitizations, etc. — that financial analysts, economists, many other non-lawyer actors, took for granted as not having any effect.
Who else wants a seat at the table?
Idea for Historical Law and Economics Thesis
| Nicolai Foss |
Apropos the always-topical issue of the efficacy of the death penalty, I was recently told by Siegwart Lindenberg that one of Gordon Tullock’s characteristically quirky proposals for reform was to institute the death penalty as the sanction that any crime would meet in the criminal justice system. However, there was a twist, because although any criminal would receive a death penalty, not all criminals would actually be executed. Specifically, all criminals would be strapped to the chair, but there was only a probability that the button would be pressed, the probability depending on the severity of the crime. Because of risk aversion and a tendency to overestimate probabilities (and for the Draconian symbolic value), this scheme would put an effective end to much crime. (I haven’t been able to find a reference for this idea; perhaps it exists only in the oral tradition that surrounds the Tullock figure).
It is easy to dismiss the Tullock scheme as “cruel,” “inhuman,” “far out,” “not practicable,” etc. But perhaps it does have a historical precursor. At its height the criminal law of England (the “Bloody Code”) included more than 220 crimes that were punishable by death, including “being in the company of gypsies for more than one month” (here is the Wiki). Other countries have had similar broad approaches to which crimes were punishable by death, though perhaps few as Draconian as England’s. However, one has to bear in mind that there generally was a pardon system, and that it is quite likely that some of the weirder crimes leading to death sentences were more likely to be pardoned than the really serious ones (e.g., a pardon may have been more likely in the case of the “crime” of being in the company in gypsies than outright murder). Could it be that this pardon system functioned in such a way that the probabilities of actual execution directly reflected the real severity of the crime? It seems likely. The data are definitely there. It is just collecting them and doing the analysis.
What Does the Rule of Law Variable Measure?
| Peter Klein |
Bill Easterly poses this question, referring to his NYU colleague Kevin Davis’s work on law and development. Davis has several papers criticizing economists’ use of rule-of-law variables in development research (1, 2, 3). As summarized by Easterly:
Kevin points out that two current measures of “rule of law” used by economists in “institutions cause development” econometric research are by their own description a mixture of some characteristics of the legal system with a long list of non-legalistic factors such as “popular observance of the law,” “a very high crime rate or if the law is routinely ignored without effective sanction (for example, widespread illegal strikes),” “losses and costs of crime,” “corruption in banking,” “crime,” “theft and crime,” “crime and theft as obstacles to business,” “extent of tax evasion,” “costs of organized crime for business” and “kidnapping of foreigners.” Showing that this mishmash is correlated with achieving development tells you what exactly? Hire bodyguards for foreigners?
What if “institutions” are yet another item in the long list of panaceas offered by development economists that don’t actually help anyone develop?
Easterly opens with a clever example of a legal rule that doesn’t make sense outside an informal, non-rule context. But overall I think he’s a little unfair to the development and financial economists working in this area, many of whom are sensitive to these problems but are doing the best they can with the data available. It’s true, however, that much of the early work, particularly in the LLSV tradition, conflated de jure and de facto rules (particularly in over-emphasizing differences between common-law and civil-law countries). Benito Arruñada’s critique of the Doing Business Project is also informative in this regard.
Postrel on Competitive Advantage
| Peter Klein |
Former guest blogger Steve Postrel gave an interesting presentation at last week’s AoM Professional Development Workshop on competitive advantage: “Competitive Advantage: Can’t Live With It, Can’t Live Without It.” Steve sent me the slides and was happy to share them here. Add your questions and comments below.
Steve provides a set of conditions that must be met for competitive advantage to be internally consistent and operationally meaningful, then presents his own (unique) definition, a simple and precise formulation in terms of gains from trade:
Seller 1 has competitive advantage over Seller 2 with respect to a specific transaction if and only if the economic surplus (gains from trade = V – C) from a transaction between 1 and the buyer is greater than the surplus from a transaction between 2 and the buyer. The difference in surplus is the CA.
A series of implications, qualifications, and applications follows. What do you think?
Preaching from the Choir
| Dick Langlois |
It’s hard to top Bruce Kogut on the Daily Show. But by sheer coincidence I happened upon a video that offers a quite different perspective on corporate social responsibility.
Bruce Kogut on the Daily Show
| Peter Klein |
Nicolai Facebooked this the other day but neglected to share it with the wider blogosphere. The clip made me laugh out loud. Of course, I don’t agree with the premise, that business schools are responsible for the current crisis (and that the MBA Oath, which we discussed before, is the solution). But it’s still funny as Hades.
Rose Friedman and Frank Knight
| Peter Klein |
You probably heard that Rose Friedman died yesterday. I haven’t read the Friedmans’ memoir and didn’t know, until Ross Emmett and Greg Ransom pointed it out yesterday, that Rose had been Frank Knight’s research assistant at Chicago and was planning a PhD dissertation on capital theory. She never finished nor, to my knowledge, published anything on the topic. What do you think she would have written? Knight produced very few PhD students (perhaps, given his idiosyncratic views, he was not the ideal dissertation adviser) and it would be interesting to know more about Rose’s experiences and her views on capital (presumably close to Knight’s, not Hayek’s).
Here’s what she says in Two Lucky People (p. 51):
After considerable discussion with Professor Knight, I decided that I would concentrate on a history of capital theory as a Ph.D. thesis topic. It would fit into my assisting with his research and was a kind of research that I found interesting. Knight approved, adding, “I have been working on that for twenty years without success but perhaps you will succeed.” I never did. During Milton’s and my honeymoon, I completed drafts of the contributions to capital theory by Longfield and Senior. However, when we started life in New York, I went to work for the National Bureau [of Economic Research] on a bond study postponing, I thought temporarily, my dissertation. I have never finished it.
Greif’s Response to Rowley
| Peter Klein |
Avner Greif has written a response to Charles Rowley’s odd claim that Greif “denied Janet Landa her full intellectual property rights with respect to her contributions to the economic analysis of trust and identity.” Public Choice, which published Rowley’s critique, will run the reply. Avner kindly sent me an advance copy and gave me permission to post it here. Full text below the jump.
My $0.02: This is a very effective reply, pointing out that Landa’s and Greif’s explanations for trust are quite different (one based on preferences, the other on beliefs). Avner, perhaps wisely, steers clear of the general epistemological problem: How do you know if scholar A has cited predecessor B “enough”? Expecting A to show he hasn’t unfairly neglected B is asking A to prove a negative. Ultimately, the whole exercise seems petty to me. B’s defenders should focus on elevating B’s reputation, not complaining about A, C, and D’s failure to show the love.
The Curious Commentary on the Citation Practices of Avner Greif
By Avner Greif
August 2009
Forthcoming at Public Choice
Abstract: Rowley (2009) failed, among other faults, to recognize the substantive distinction between the lines of research pursued by Professor Landa and myself. Its claim that I have “expropriated” (p. 276) intellectual property rights from Professor Landa by insufficiently citing her works is vacuous. (more…)
Times Are Tough
| Peter Klein |
At the University of Southern Mississippi, which is responding to the economic crisis by eliminating its economics department (Tomas Sjostrom via Sandeep Baliga). Even tenured faculty will go
Stanford dumped its Food Research Institute (where a good friend of mine was employed) about a decade ago, also terminating the contracts of tenured economists, though not in response to a particular external event (as far as know). I’m sure there are other examples. Thank goodness it wasn’t sociology!
Your Vote Counts After All!
| Peter Klein |
The average American had a 1-in-60 million chance of affecting the outcome in the last Presidential election. Boy, do I feel bad!
Mintzberg Interview
| Peter Klein |
A short interview with Henry Mintzberg, mostly about his forthcoming book Managing, in today’s WSJ (not sure if it is gated). Best line:
I talk about what I call “the inevitably flawed manager.” We’re all flawed, but basically, effective managers are people whose flaws are not fatal under the circumstances. Maybe the best managers are simply ordinary, healthy people who aren’t too screwed up.
Obama Administration Needs Sociologists
| Peter Klein |
And fewer economists, according to the sociologists interviewed by Inside Higher Ed:
Donald Tomaskovic-Devey, a professor of sociology at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, described watching the news in December, as the economy was in a free fall and Barack Obama, as president-elect, was naming people to key positions in his administration. From the social sciences, he said, it was “the same old cast of characters,” and that means economists.
Obama’s election had brought “a sense of possibility,” but “as a sociologist I was pissed off,” he said.
“I have economist envy on a good day and worse things on a bad day,” he said.
I have great respect for my sociologically trained brethren and sistren (cistern?) but am not sure what, exactly, they are asking for. One sociologist thinks economists downplay race and gender — “their supply and demand curves don’t deal with these questions” — which is silly, as much of the analysis of subprimes by labor economists focuses exactly on this. I’m not claiming that sociology (or anthropology or history or psychology) has no useful policy implications, of course, only asking for specifics. (more…)
Four Talks on Keynes
| Peter Klein |
Videos from February’s inaugural event of Duke University’s Center for the History of Political Economy, a series of lectures on Keynes:
- Maynard Keynes of Bloomsbury by Craufurd Goodwin
- Keynes as Policy Advisor by E. Roy Weintraub
- Keynes and Economics by Kevin D. Hoover
- Keynes and Hayek by Bruce Caldwell
The texts are here. Thanks to Ross Emmett for the pointer.
Navigating a Process of Integrating Co-Authors’ Diverse Mental Models
| Russ Coff |
Not long ago, Peter mentioned his heavily downloaded SEJ article (with Nicolai, Yasemin, and Joe). They argue that entrepreneurial teams have a greater potential for competitive advantage than individuals if positive team dynamics allow them to draw upon members’ diverse mental models.
My related working paper unpacks positive team dynamics across the variance generation and selection stages of creativity. In a nutshell, the required group mood differs markedly between the two stages and many teams are unable to navigate the divide.
Ironically, this paper has, itself, been a journey to meld co-authors’ diverse mental models. (more…)
Greif Under Fire Again
| Peter Klein |
We noted previously Jeremy Edwards and Sheilagh Ogilvie’s challenge to Avner Greif, contenting that he misread his primary source material, and Greif’s response. Now Charles Rowley has published a paper in Public Choice accusing Greif of academic dishonesty, namely by failing to cite Janet Landa’s prior work on the economics of identity and trust:
This commentary demonstrates that Avner Greif, through his citation practices, has denied Janet Landa her full intellectual property rights with respect to her contributions to the economic analysis of trust and identity. He has done so by systematically failing to cite her published papers in this field, incidentally promoting his own publications as meriting priority. In consequence, he has effectively blocked out Janet Landa’s work from the mainstream economics literature, albeit not from the literature of law and economics, where his own writings have not been directed.
It’s an odd piece. I’m not sufficiently familiar with Landa’s work to evaluate its place in the history of thought in this area, or to judge whether Greif has appropriated her ideas without attribution. Rowley doesn’t accuse Greif of plagiarism, only of failing to cite an important predecessor and overstating the novelty of his own work. This is a difficult claim to substantiate; obviously the evaluation of prior contributions in one’s own area is highly subjective. And the implication (later in the piece) that Greif’s citation practices contributed to his Genius Award seems like a cheap shot. It is true, however, that contemporary economists tend to be woefully ignorant of the history of economic thought (and, as Rowley implies, that game theorists have what might be called a “healthy sense of self”).
Update: I missed earlier discussions of the Rowley piece at Monkey Cage and Crooked Timber. The Monkey Cage commentary is disappointing, mostly ad hominem snarks at Rowley, the field of public choice, and (most bizarre, but it’s Brad Delong), the Mont Pelerin Society. Henry’s analysis at Crooked Timber is more serious, and I think he gets it right.
Coasean Bargaining Around Wrigley Field
| Peter Klein |
While enjoying the Phillies’ 12-inning victory over the Cubs Tuesday night Joe Mahoney, Jongwook Kim, and I talked about the implications of the Coase Theorem for the Wrigley Rooftops. The rooftop seats are still there — and some are quite fancy — despite many attempts by the Cubs over the years to have them removed, as beneficiaries of an unwarranted positive externality. Apparently a few years back the Cubs sought an injunction against the rooftop owners on grounds of copyright infringement, and most of the owners agreed in an out-of-court settlement to pay royalties to the team in exchange for official endorsement.
One can imagine other ways to internalize the externality — the team could build a wall to obscure the view, buy out the rooftop buildings’ owners, or pay them to take down the seats. There are only a dozen or so buildings, so I don’t imagine that the bargaining costs are very high, suggesting that the current arrangement is the one that maximizes joint surplus, but some of you readers must be much more familiar with the details. What’s going on, from a Coasean perspective? Certainly this is an interesting example for a classroom discussion of property rights and the Coase Theorem. I thought I’d find several online discussions but a quick Google search came up with just one law-review article. It seems that more recently, the club has been going after the rooftop owners not for selling seats, but for using the Cubs logo without permission.
Heterogeneity and Health Care
| Peter Klein |
Further to Russ’s post: One of the most frustrating aspects of the discussion surrounding health-care reform is the tendency of politicians, activists, and even a few economists to talk about “health care” as if it’s a homogeneous blob, or an intangible thing like “love” or “happiness.” Of course, what we produce and consume, what we exchange on markets, is not “health care” but specific, discrete health-care goods and services (procedures, medications, insurance policies, etc.). If you never go to the doctor and consume only one aspirin per year, do you have “health care”? If not, what specific bundle of goods and services constitutes a unit of “health care”?
Once we realize we are really talking about discrete, marginal units of particular goods and services the very notion of “universal access to health care” becomes problematic. What exactly is it that people have a universal right to? It’s analogous to debates about the environment. One can have a sort of philosophical or meta-economic commitment to “the environment,” and its protection (hoo-boy), but this means very little in terms of specific trade-offs at the margin. Is it better to have one more house or airport runway or corn field, or one more patch of meadow or forest? Being an “environmentalist” doesn’t answer that question. You know the old story: everybody values “safety,” but that doesn’t mean you never leave your house or, when you do, drive to work in a Sherman tank. You willingly sacrifice some amount of safety in exchange for units of other scarce and valuable goods (like access to the world outside your house, time spent traveling, money). Each of us evaluates this trade-off differently. Likewise, the marginal valuations of specific health-care goods and services, relative to other consumption and investment goods, cash balances, etc. varies from individual to individual. There’s no such thing as “health care.” As always, heterogeneity matters.
Will Mitchell’s Comments on Receiving the BPS Irwin Award
| Russ Coff |
A big congratulations to Will for winning this prestigious award. It is really something to hear a person’s students describe how their mentor has altered their lives. Many misty eyes in the room…
Embedded in Will’s comments after receiving the award was an observation that in many business settings, such as in developing countries, effective business decisions cannot be made using the risk-based tools (like NPV) that are so often taught in business schools. He argued that, in the face of Knightian uncertainty, these tools fail miserably.
So what would be a set of tools to address uncertainty? The closest that I teach would be scenario analysis and real options. Here, one still needs to estimate parameters like the volatility of the investment or probabilities of outcomes (for decision trees or binomial trees). Of course, the assumption that these parameters could be known still suggests reflect risk rather than uncertainty. However, I emphasize sensitivity analysis (such as simulations, etc.) on these parameters to address the fact that they cannot be known.
First, is this the best set of tools available for Knightian uncertainty?
Second, is Will right that these are left out of most strategy courses? Perhaps we need to re-think the curriculum a bit…
John Hughes
| Peter Klein |
You probably heard that John Hughes, director of the great youth comedies of the 1980s, passed away last week. Perhaps his most lasting achievement was making a star out of Ben Stein. Everyone knows “Bueller? Bueller?” and “Anyone? Anyone?” But do you remember the subject of Stein’s famous lecture?
Naturally, when Hollywood wants to portray the most boring academic subject imaginable, it turns to. . . .
Statistics Is Sexy
| Peter Klein |
So say Hal Varian, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Peter Orszag, among others quoted in this NY Times piece (via Laura M). “I keep saying that the sexy job in the next 10 years will be statisticians,” says Varian, who now toils away as chief economist at Google, though he’s not far from the hearts of most economics PhD students. Here’s Brynjolfsson: “We’re rapidly entering a world where everything can be monitored and measured. But the big problem is going to be the ability of humans to use, analyze, and make sense of the data.”
The article doesn’t actually say much about the substance of the “new” statistics, but the writer has in mind inductive, very-large-N, data-mining exercises (the kind of analysis not taught to social-science and business-administration graduate students, except perhaps some marketing and finance PhDs). Of course we still make our students take multiple semesters of classical statistics and econometrics.
Solution to a Credit Bubble? More Credit
| Peter Klein |
As noted before (1, 2, 3), policymakers (and some economists) seem immune to the argument that the credit bubble may have been caused by, you know, too much credit, and that encouraging people to increase their debt levels even more might not be the optimal policy response.
Bill Shughart, a very good economist, notes some disturbing parallels between the monetary and regulatory policies that led to the housing crisis and the US government’s “cars for clunkers” program. Whatever its effect on improving air quality (marginal) or stimulating aggregate demand (barf), one consequence is that people who would not otherwise have taken out a new car loan will do so, increasing total and average leverage in the economy. Will banks be pressured to extend new-car credit to “subprime” borrowers? Well, if all you care about is total lending, this is a good thing.
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