Forget Knightian Uncertainty
6 February 2010
| Peter Klein |
And characterize the world’s uncertain future by listing all possible future events, assigning each a magnitude and probability, linking each event to (causally?) connected events, and sticking them all in a cool interactive graph. I doubt this tells us anything meaningful about the world but it sure is an interesting data visualization exercise! (Datavisualization.ch via Cliff Kuang.)
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1.
Shawn Ritenour | 7 February 2010 at 1:56 pm
How do they know what magnitude of probability to assign to each event?
2.
Peter Klein | 7 February 2010 at 2:03 pm
Experts, Shawn, experts! You gotta rely on the experts.
3.
Shawn Ritenour | 7 February 2010 at 4:03 pm
Ah yes, Just like I rely on the bloggers at O & M!
4.
Michael E. Marotta | 16 February 2010 at 6:24 am
It would be nice in three dimensions, and with a time component, four. Then, you could walk around it and watch it run over and over.
But… you gotta ask: What is the “Global Governance Gap”?
On a different forum the question came up about the extent to which Auguste Comte truly influenced American sociologists. Whether or not they actually study his collected works, there is no doubt that like Plato’s philosopher king, Comte’s priesthood of positivism finds a ready market among those who think that they know what is best for everyone else.